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Federal Survey at 1st year- (1) J. Trudeau/Libs (38.1%), Cons (24%), Mulcair/NDP (18.8%), Maj ? Election Method; (3) Canadians Fire Judge Robin Camp; (4) Split on Pipelines; (5) Support Carbon Tax (6) Split on Royals funding by Canucks
  Oct 19, 2016

Question #1
Which federal leader and party do you currently support?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    38.18 %
Rona Ambrose and Conservative Party of Canada    24.09 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    18.88 %
Rheal Fortin and Bloc Quebecois Party    6.19 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    3.87 %
Undecided    7.23 %
Question #2
In a progressive democracy like Canada does it make sense to you personally that 40% of the vote for a specific party obtained from an election, should produce a majority of 54% of the seats in the House of Commons?
Yes    38 %
No    48 %
Question #3
In 2014 Alberta court case “R v Wager”, a sexual assault case saw Judge Robin Camp refer to a 19 year old homeless woman who had been raped as “the accused” when she was the victim. Also, in the transcript of that case is evidence of Judge Camp telling this rape victim that she ought to kept her knees together (to avoid the rape). In a hearing before the Canadian Judicial Council, a decision has to be made as to whether or not Robin Camp should keep his job. During the hearing, Judge Camp's lawyers have indicated that he has attended treatment, has seen the error of his ways, and is ready to go back to work to his $300,000 a year job. In your opinion should the Judicial Council of Canada permit Robin Camp to remain a judge?
Yes    13 %
No    75 %
Question #4
How important is it to you personally and as a citizen voting in Canadian Elections that the Government of Canada provide federal environmental approval for the construction of pipelines for the transportation of crude oil from Alberta to tidewater on both coasts?
Important    47 %
Not Important    48 %
Question #5
Do you support a national carbon tax?
Yes    51 %
No    38 %
Question #6
In your opinion who should pay for the British Royals visits to Canada?
Canada    45 %
Not Canada    45 %
Question 1 (leader and party support)
By Province (pre-adjustment)
Liberal Party of Canada support by province from British Columbia to Atlantic Provinces: British Columbia (29%), Alberta (25%), Saskatchewan (34%), Manitoba (43%), Ontario (43%), Quebec (32%), Atlantic Provinces (42%).
Conservative Party of Canada support by province: British Columbia (19%), Alberta (46%), Saskatchewan (36%), Manitoba (28%), Ontario (21%), Quebec (9%), Atlantic Provinces (27%).
New Democratic Party of Canada support by province: British Columbia (29%), Alberta (20%), Saskatchewan (23%), Manitoba (22%), Ontario (18%), Quebec (18%), Atlantic Provinces (17%).
Undecided by Province BC (12%), Alberta (4%), Saskatchewan (4%), Manitoba (3%), Ontario (11%), Quebec (6%), Atlantic Provinces (5%).
British Columbia: Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada remain nearly equal in Canada's most western province, where even an add back of Undecided would not bring popular popular support back up to 35.2% from 2015 EO. Federal Conservatives are adrift in B.C. with more than one third of support gone elsewhere or Undecided. Federal New Democrats are grabbing up sprinklings of Conservative supporters where it appears Justin Trudeau is an untenable alternative to them. Federal Greens continue to float near double digits basking in the glory of grabbing basis points of support from all parties – here one – there another.
Alberta: Justin Trudeau continues to hold support from 2015 EO in the Province of Alberta. Conservatives are off near (30%) from 2015 totals not entirely explained through Undecided column. Once again the New Democratic Party grabs support from Conservatives as it did in British Columbia up from 11.6% 2015 totals to (20%) in RSR Survey in the Province of Alberta.
Saskatchewan: Despite some serious grievances about a federal carbon tax from provincial Conservative leader Brad Wall – Trudeau and Liberals have made serious inroads in Saskatchewan gaining (40%) from 2015 EO. Again, Conservatives are floundering in Saskatchewan going from 2015 EO of 48.5% to RSR Survey support of (36%). New Democrats are down in Saskatchewan from 25.1% 2015 EO to (23%) in RSR.
Manitoba: Trudeau Liberals are down ever so slightly from 2015 EO in Manitoba 44.6% to (43%). Conservatives are in trouble here as well with EO at 37.3% and RSR Survey support at (28%). New Democrats continue to steal away Conservatives in Manitoba going from 13.8% to (22%) support in RSR.
Ontario: Justin Trudeau and Liberals had cross country success but none more applicable to the bottom line than a big win in Ontario with 44.8% in EO {(43%) in RSR support},- virtually the same support with a few points in Undecided. Conservatives continue to sink like a stone in Canada's most populous province. After achieving 35% EO in federal general election one year ago, Conservatives are heading toward one half of that with many Conservatives Undecided at this moment. New Democrats attained a disappointing 16.6% from 2015 EO but have increased support slightly to (18%).
Quebec: All mainstream federal parties have lost support to the Bloc Quebecois, bad news for English Canada. Justin Trudeau achieved 35.7% in 2015 EO but is now down a few points to (32%) in RSR. Conservatives achieved a less than remarkable 16.7% in Canada's 2nd largest province, but this total has declined sharply to (9%) with noticeable losses to the Bloc from Conservatives. The New Democrats – once the king of the Quebec castle have gone from 28.4% EO total to (18%) in RSR – a possible response to the political purgatory placed upon so called leader Tom Mulcair and the emerging domination of federal support between Liberals and Bloc Quebecois.
Atlantic Provinces: Trudeau Liberals achieved about 58% through the Atlantic Provinces of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador in 2015 EO, but have lost noteworthy support declining to (42%) in RSR nearly (30%) of previous totals. Conservatives were decimated in the 2015 general federal achieving EO of 19% but have grown to (27%) EO in RSR
Question 2 (Election Methodology)
By Province: British Columbia “Yes” (33%), “No” (51%); Alberta “Yes” (39%), “No” (47%); Saskatchewan “Yes” (42%), “No” (44%); Manitoba “Yes” (34%), “No” (49%); Ontario “Yes” (41%), “No” (50%); Quebec “Yes” (33%), “No” (54%); Atlantic Provinces “Yes” (38%), “No” (45%).
Ranking from highest to lowest “Yes”: 1. Saskatchewan (42%), 2. Ontario (41%), 3. Alberta (39%), 4. Atlantic Provinces (38%), 5. Manitoba (34%), 6. Quebec (33%), 7. British Columbia (33%).
Ranking from highest to lowest “No”: 1. Quebec (54%), 2. British Columbia (51%) 3. Ontario (50%), 4. Manitoba (49%), 5. Alberta (47%), 6. Atlantic Provinces (45%), Saskatchewan (44%).
Median (by province not population) “Yes” (38%) Median (by province not population) “No” (49%)
Question 3 (Judge Camp "You're Fired")
By Province: British Columbia “Yes” (7%), “No” (83%); Alberta “Yes” (12%), “No” (74%); Saskatchewan “Yes” (11%), “No” (77%); Manitoba “Yes” (14%), “No” (80%); Ontario “Yes” (17%), “No” (75%); Quebec “Yes” (8%), “No” (84%); Atlantic Provinces “Yes” (13%), “No” (74%).
Ranking highest to lowest “Yes” 1. Ontario (17%), 2. Manitoba (14%), 3. Atlantic Provinces (13%), 4. Alberta (12%), 5. Saskatchewan (11%), 6. Quebec (8%), 7. British Columbia (7%).
Ranking highest to lowest “No” 1. Quebec (84%), 2. British Columbia (83%), 3. Manitoba (80%), 4. Saskatchewan (77%), 5. Ontario (75%), 6. Alberta (74%), 7. Atlantic Provinces (74%).
Median “Yes” (12%) Median “No” (77%)
Question 4 (Crude Oil & Pipelines)
By Province: British Columbia “Important” (29%), “Not Important” (62%); Alberta “Important” (56%), “Not Important (35%); Saskatchewan “Important” (58%), “Not Important” (32%), Manitoba “Important” (44%) “Not Important” (40%); Ontario “Important” (48%), “Not Important” (43%); Quebec “Important” (34%) “Not Important” (58%); Atlantic Provinces “Important” (49%), “Not Important” (39%).
Question 5 (Carbon Tax)
By Province: British Columbia “Yes” (52%), “No” (29%); Alberta “Yes” (41%) “No” (53%); Saskatchewan “Yes” (40%), “No” (55%); Manitoba “Yes” (44%), “No” (42%); Ontario “Yes” (60%), “No” (38%); Quebec “Yes” (64%), “No” (27%); Atlantic Provinces “Yes” (43%), “No” (47%).
Question 6 (Who should pay for the Royals in Canada?)
By Province: British Columbia “Canada” (45%), “Not Canada” (48%); Alberta “Canada” (45%), “Not Canada” (53%); Saskatchewan “Canada” (46%), “Not Canada” (43%); Manitoba “Canada” (42%), “Not Canada” (50%); Ontario “Canada” (52%), “Not Canada” (43%), Quebec “Canada” (36%), “Not Canada” (49%); Atlantic Provinces “Canada” (48%), “Not Canada” (40%).
In our 1st annual survey of Canadians since the October 2015 election Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is holding to his Election Outcome (“EO” 2015) totals as measured by current support in this RSR survey of some of those voters. Nearly (3%) (adjusted) of Liberal support has moved to the New Democrat column, while slightly more than that amount has been taken by the Liberals from the Conservative Party of Canada. Some NDP vote has migrated back to Liberals and (2.5%) of Liberal vote (2015) has moved to Undecided.
The Conservative Party of Canada has relinquished nearly one quarter of its vote support to the Liberal Party of Canada and undecided, waiting for former PM Stephen Harper to wait and see what he would do, and no distinguishable leadership race having occurred during that period. Much of the Conservative leadership content has been overshadowed by attention to U.S. presidential election, and a type of extended honeymoon voters granted the Liberals in conjunction with former PM Stephen Harper's desire to delay retirement and collect MP salary.
The New Democratic Party of Canada caught a break and moved up its downward national trend toward single digits and back up to “EO” 2015 totals likely as a consequence of the federal Liberal government's approval of environmental 'cert' to British Columbia, provincial New Democrats in Alberta pushing for pipelines (against the wishes of the province) and taking of some Conservative vote here and there. The New Democrats have another (2%) in undecided they might attract to move their base up toward (20%) within striking distance of the Conservative Opposition.
The Bloc Quebecois has improved its fortunes by (20%) from EO 2015 being most reasonable in taking from Liberal, Conservative and New Democratic totals in the Province of Quebec, while the Greens have increased its EO 2015 by (25%) taking from all parties.
This is an RSR ROBBINS Survey of 1,342 Canadian Voters from 2015 Canadian Federal General Eleciton held one year ago. Survey is conducted October 11, 2016 to October 17, 2016.
Adjustments are made to conform to vote totals by province and rate of vote for each. The sample size of this Survey would suggest a margin of error of 2.68%, however given that this is a Survey of known persons and not a random sample, estimate of error is made at 2-3%.

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