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RSR ROBBINS British Columbia Poll Feb 17, 2020 - No Fault - Aboriginals & Pipelines featuring former BC Premier WAC Bennett and US President Donald Trump
  Feb 17, 2020

Question #1
Support for Leader & Party?
John Horgan BC NDP    33 %
Andrew Wilkonson BC Liberal    31 %
Sonia Furstanau BC Green    11 %
Question #2
Do you support the BC New Democrat government decision to change ICBC, BC’s automobile insurance monopoly, whereby higher income replacement and other benefits, and significant lower premiums, would replace an injured person’s ability to go to court and where seriously injured persons would receive benefits upwards of $750,000 for things like ongoing medical and homecare, but no more court awards?
Yes    49 %
No    33 %
Question #3
Which one of the following response choices best described do you TRUST LEAST when it comes to ICBC insurance rates and legal compensation?
ICBC Executive & Management    25 %
Personal Injury Lawyers    32 %
I don’t trust either    10 %
Both are OK (doing their job)    23 %
Commentary
John Horgan & BC New Democrats see highest support on lower Vancouver Island @ (43%). This is offset by noteworthy losses in Vancouver and Lower Mainland to (36%) decided totals. Many Undecided in this RSR ROBBINS Poll are in the most populous areas in the Lower Mainland of the Province.
Lower support for the BC NDP in the Fraser Valley, Okanagan, Northern BC and Kootenay Region (southeast BC) is languishing around (29%).
John Horgan appears to have lost part of ‘himself’ in the historical BC agreement with soon to retire BC Green Leader Andrew Weaver to govern the province, following former BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark’s failure to convince BC Lieutenant General to permit her to retain government (2017).
Is John Horgan a Green - stop energy jobs at any cost? Pushing through to the end of the Courts process - in support of his BC NDP Green Alliance - is an example of fine leadership in terms of the good faith British Columbians admire from a sector of professionals generally regarded as having no back bone to their convictions.
To his good credit Horgan has kept the government operating functionally. Trouble is - a fellow with this intellectual, political and social skill and excellent personality is poorly marketed. His handlers are squeezing a 7/10 out of a guy who could run 9/10 proficiency with the right advisors. Good faith doesn’t pay the bills says the common woman, and truth be told, I don’t personally believe that good faith applies to the Institutional apparatus of this Province - the word of government is no good here. I have acquired enough Plimptonesque anecdote to know investing in BC is not a good idea, what is promised doesn’t actually exist. Institutionally and otherwise British Columbia is a pretty greasy province and has been for some time.
The voting public isn’t over the moon over any of these choices - but accepts generally - as Canadians do - that there isn’t much choice squeezing out of party politics in BC (or Canada for that matter). John Horgan was once ranked best or second best Premier in Canada according to Angus Reid. At one time I had his personal popularity climbing above (50%) support while the party brand stood back of him.
I doubt very much that Angus Reid pollsters will have a similar score for him this year (but anything is possible). Is John Horgan a capitalist or a socialist or lost somewhere in between? A Premier in Purgatory? LOL.
BC Premier WAC Bennett and Donald Trump - Lessons for John Horgan
WAC Bennett like US President Donald Trump was a builder and believer in the theory that small business success adding up to overall economic success (floats all boats as it were). WAC Bennett, also like US President Donald Trump, wanted sincerely to construct policies that would help everyone including those who did not or were not inclined to vote for him. They both love(d) people despite often rabid criticism of their policies on the basis of their dislike for the personality. WAC Bennett like US President Trump was a populist. WAC Bennett like US President Trump was a Reform Conservative. WAC Bennett also like US President Donald Trump was not a drinker, in government he felt the drink was an easy road to compromise. WAC Bennett was a real church goer and family man. US President Donald Trump was not a real church goer but is a family man like WAC Bennett, the church is newer to him as President. WAC Bennett sought energy independence - US President Trump has achieved it for America WAC Bennett put the Province of British Columbia on the world map, an energy genius - because he was a shrewed negotiator, a sharp leader - harnessed BC resources to make BC stinking rich and wanted British Columbia to be energy independent as the United States has recently become under U.S. President Donald Trump today. WAC negotiated an original pipeline deal with Trans Mountain pipelines and the Federal Government of Canada - wayyy long ago that ensured low gas prices for all British Columbians. Where has that deal gone? John Horgan needs to think and be like former BC Premier WAC Bennett tomorrow.
Andrew Wilkonson & BC Liberals reveal weak support on Vancouver Island @ (25%) (overall), but score (32%) in Vancouver Lower Mainland, (38%) in the Fraser Valley, Okanagan, Northern BC and Kootenday Region. The new improved (one hopes) BC Conservative Party led by Trevor Bolin attracts (3%) support on Vancouver Island. If the party cobbles together more than the Brylcreem $$$ as donation to the party and makes a serious sincere run of it - this (3%_ could cost BC Liberals a strategic seat on the North Island of Vancouver Island. Andrew Wilksonson is more abrasive a Leader than I thought (“grow up”) (Michael Smyth/Province/CKNW), but in that he is much better than the Vancouver milquetoast I had imagined he was given I didn’t see much of him or his positions. In a recent Poll I conducted barely one in ten could identify him. Wilkonson is a political personality alot like Gordon Campbell - who generally was supported by more than (40%) of the Electorate - but doesn’t have the persistent weakness of the flesh that Campbell had (at least none that we have identified yet). LOFL.
He is originally from the Interior (I think) and this history befits his political personna now that I got a better taste of it. I don’t know how likeable Andrew Wilsonson is - but he is certainly competent intellectually and otherwise to challenge Horgan, {particulary if Horgan is weaker than I might have hoped for him}. This means if Horgan turns out to be a ‘weakling, and not the political beefcake media promoted him to be (that Irish temper tells this Celt - he likes the pale ale does he?) -- and Wilkonson is smart enough, shrewd enough, and tough enough to beat him. Wilkonson only needs to clean house of old BC Liberals - Coleman, de Jong etc sooner than later and confront Horgan - without the old baggage for the BC Liberals to sneak back into power. If there is video of Wilkonson bodily throwing de Dutch Panakook out on his backside - up 3 percentage points. Tosses Coleman to the Aboriginal protest - I make his next Premier. LOL.
Sonia Furstenau and BC Greens do very well in lower Vancouver Island (where the constituency is located) @ (24%) but drop to (9%) in Vancouver and Lower Mainland, and drop further in the more conservative Fraser Valley (Langley, Abbotsford, Aldergrove, Chilliwack, Hope and other), attracting (8%) in the Okanagan (Kelowna, Kamloops, Vernon, Salmon Arm, Pentiction, Summerland, and other). I expect that these lower percentages of support for BC Green (compared to 2017 BC Election Outcomes) occur for many reasons -(i) tired of pipeline fights; (ii) paying for pipelines with tax dollars; (iii) being threatened with loss of more tax dollars because of increased pipeline costss (iv) industry being suffocated by protest for days lost that cannot be gained = too much stress for those British Columbians who hung with the Environmentalists, in part because they resented the Alberta government’s stark arrogance more, and thus (v) cannot support more economic loss and personal inconvenience in exchange for free speech, freedom of expression and other so called Charter Rights.
I expect that these lower percentages of support for BC Green (compared to 2017 BC Election Outcomes) occur for many reasons -(i) tired of pipeline fights; (ii) paying for pipelines with tax dollars; (iii) being threatened with loss of more tax dollars because of increased pipeline costss (iv) industry being suffocated by protest for days lost that cannot be gained = too much stress for those British Columbians who hung with the Environmentalists, in part because they resented the Alberta government’s stark arrogance more, and thus (v) cannot support more economic loss and personal inconvenience in exchange for free speech, freedom of expression and other so called Charter Rights.
Many British Columbians aren’t positive about Alberta. Premier Kenney has been masterful about keeping still, and shutting his mouth, while the wheels in the political legal world affecting BC and his province’s pipeline ambitions turn his way. Alberta will be pumping more oil through BC before you know it - and money will roll back into that economy, and all boats rise from that eh? It’s all become too much about the ego centricity of frankly less than stellar quality government employees… ...over a long long period of time. The publicists and public relations people in government and in media government - don’t seem to understand the public though allegedly $160 million is ‘piddled’ away every year on employment of persons who apparently track the public interest. I believe that media and government actually work together - pretending one checks the other - in an overall effort to Manufacture Consent (Noam Chomsky).
Andrew Weaver as Leader, held BC Green tough, and although Mademoiselle Furstenau (vying for BC Green Leader to replace Andrew Weaver), is a first rate young politician from beautiful Cowichan (Vancouver Island) - fabulous Shawnigan Lake - neither she nor the BC Green Party will attain what Andrew Weaver did - but he is leaving and things are changing in the province.
Like all of the public pollsters, I continue to repeat the mantra that BC Conservatives have a good basis of support, particular in traditionally strong regions like the Fraser Valley and Okanagan regions where support is upwards of (15%), but exuberance wanes when respondents in Vancouver Island laugh and ask if a BC Conservative Party actually exists. Fund raising success (or lack thereof) will tell us ‘if the BC Conservatives are serious or (again) just pretending’. Few take the BC Conservative Party seriously as it historically has been a trick poney for BC Liberals, and frankly an embarassment in BC politics, controlled in executive by known names associated with Federal Conservatives aligned with BC Liberals. Shaming their performance until the BC Conservatives actully produce - and produce is 8/9 percent in actual Vote - is a right of all public and private pollsters - now controlling the World of Politics (“WoP”). A (strategic) cynic knowing the more recent history of the BC Conservtive Party - would suggest that Andrew Wilkonson Leader of the BC Liberal Party might have 5 of the 7 BC Conservative percentage points in support tumbling round a pocket in a jacket somewheres, and a lead over Horgan’s NDP .
The BC Liberals run a great election campaign but had a big money advantage in a greasy political climate - but now have to play a little more than fair - and these RSR ROBBINS show as British Columbia radio guru Michael Smyth suggests on CKNW Radio - ‘need to spend a little more time in the Penalty Box’. I think that is an apt depiction of public opinion from Smyth who covered my very first political poll.
I think BC Greens (albeit lower) support is pretty solid. This is easily supported by the high minority of British Columbians clearly behind aboriginal consent prior to proceeding with construction notwithstanding the impositions they are imposing on the economy and in some cases on the public.
I would note that many to most of the Undecided from Question 1 on Leader & Party, also track through to Undecided in subsequent questions, suggesting to me that the issues canvassed herein may well become the decider of the next government.
How does the (12%) Undecided eventually apportion?
On balance of probability, average of decided and actual support for BC New Democrat decision to change ICBC to essentially a no fault scheme (limited access to court) attracts (53.5%) support while resistance to it is (36%).
Of the near (80%) of respondents who selected a response (Undecided/All Other (20%)), over (50%) actual, or (62.5%) decided, (‘picked’) a response that supports building pipelines, interpreted (rationally) to mean either the application for expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline that spawned Federal Court decisions (vis a vis consulting aboriginals), or the huge $40 Billion (with a “B” Billion”), LNG project in Northern BC provoking all of the protests and interruption of economy in this Province and Canada------ is something that a majority of British Columbians want. Juultimately,I believe (49%-50%) of British Columbians actual want all of the pipeline business on stream - while ‘tops’ (35%) do not. Pipelines win.
Obviously asking who one “trust(s) least” is a suggestion to the respondent that the response choices might or must be considered in a negative light. I believe its fair to make such an assumption in the circumstances described by Attorney General David Eby “Dumpster Fire” the description he ascribes to ICBC including consideration of Billion dollars per year being paid to BC lawyers doing personal injury work. For this reason I have not declared this question a “push” question. (67%) actual respondents “least trust” either “ICBC Executive and Management or Personal Injury Lawyers”. This is equivalent to more than 7/10 decided respondents. Of this (67%) least trust Personal Injury Lawyers attract better than (55%) of the negativity, while ICBC Executive and Management attract (45%).
A battle to the bottom between ICBC Executive and Management and Personal Injury Lawyers. From this data I would theorize that both “ICBC Executive and Management” and “Personal Injury Lawyers” are seen negatively by (50%) to (68%) of BC respondents, and by inverse assessment (a more positive interpretation - ‘approval’ (both are OK doing their job) would be lowest (23%) support to highest (46%) for both because only one response choice is related to a non negative choice, an average of (30%). All things considered (negative) toward “ICBC Executive and Management” plus “Personal Injury Lawyers” negative perception is (59%) while AOK perception of both (each) is (35%).
Percentages -nothing to write home to mother about. David Eby needs to provide an inquiry into why average settlement costs increased so dramatically through the BC Liberal - BC Trial Lawyers love in. Were any of these settlements out of line with reasonable settlements or were any injured persons or groups of people or law firms favoured? This has to be considered by the government. Bigger settlements to one demographic over another using settlements as political advantage. Shouldn’t somebody be getting arrested over this and real estate soon? Something is very wrong within the Management class at ICBC, I would videotape management being thrown off the top of the North Vancouver head office to instill renewed public confidence - they permitted lawyers to literally bankrupt the Corporation, at least in my opinion, and the opinion of many British Columbians. How many of the same managers - or upper executives are still working there? ICBC itself isn’t innocent in this dumpster fire. Something went down there that isn’t right and is probably criminal imo.
(This may have no relation to the problems with run away settlement averages, but I can attest to applying for a job at ICBC as adjustor, passing the complex tests with flying colours and through FOI discovering I was listed for hire, only to not be hired on the basis of a fraudulent back dated email from Human Resources ICBC. BC Attorney Generals Office under BC Liberal government didn’t care about the back dated email. Really sick).
I can also attest to properly initiating Mediation with BC Attorney General civil litigation lawyer who agreed to Mediation in a legal case at New Westminster versus WorkSafe BC and its Tribunal (AG Rules compel parties to attend to Mediation). BC AG Civil Litigator later refused to attend. Broke the law without batting an eye. Did it with ease and with no concern for the implications because in British Columbia there are none. I don’t believe much of what Government says - personally. I expect that for many reasons most British Columbians feel similarly. Kicking cuts to insurance premiums to May 2021 might be pushing it too far with premium payers (voters) - who don’t have alot of patience in the tank for this government (or the former one).
In 1997 Glen P. Robbins through his (then) Independent publishing company was approached by a non profit to take on the no fault cause as the fight to knock off no fault was deemed lost and dead in the water. BC media conglomerates suggest that BC Disability knocked it off. No disrespect to BC Disability, but this is not a true statement by media apparently trying to keep the narratives and credit in the ‘institution castle’. At that time, Gordon Adair was heading up the No to No Fault for Trial Lawyers and Premier Glen Clarke had made his to proceed with the No fault new policy. After getting the stop no fault campaign to admit they were weak finished and abject losers, and that they all agree the fight was lost, Glen P. Robbins obtaind approval from Gordon Adair running the campaign against No fault (and accountant, with his lawyer present) “nothing to lose at this point”, the terminator Glen P. Robbins (me) paid for and pursued a change of mind for the then BC NDP government. A targeted distribution of very aggressive anti no fault newspapers were produced by Glen P. Robbins and dropped on every doorstep of Glen Clark and a number of Cabinet Ministers causing Clark to change his mind within a week. Premier Clarke shit his suit pants and folded his No fault tent. These days Robbins simply polls unworthy Leaders out of the job. Ask Stephen Harper (2015).
There is No help coming to BC Lawyers this time, they have a bad name and not alot of overall support for their cause generally. No fault will stick - unless David Eby lies or ICBC Executive and Management continue to be awful greasing some injury victims with higher settlements and sticking it to other premium payers. Promising to kick the 20 percent premium discounts to average annual insurance costs for premium payers to May 2021 - might be too a long to wait despite the FDRooseveltian strategy of promising the savings after Election after taking away the rights to access the courts in front of this.
Telephone/Recent/2.0% Margin of Error.
GPR
-30-

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