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Conservative's take lead in BC-ROBBINS NewTrend Poll reveals
  Dec 06, 2005

A random sample of 1,150 British Columbians throughout every region of the province between December 1st and 6th, 2005. This survey features a margin of error of 2.65%, 19 times out of 20 @99% competency. NewTrend Optical of Port Coquitlam “seeing is believing” (604) 942-9300; and Glen P. Robbins and Associates paid for this survey.
If you want a copy of this survey for no charge please send your email address to ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) c/o and we will email you a copy. A completed and detailed breakdown of all numbers (detailed survey) including specific calling areas by prefix and respondent intention throughout the province of BC is available for $10,000 (Canadian) and requests for the same can be made at the email address above. Payment arrangements and survey information would be undertaken through legal counsel. Be sure to disclose your first and last name, and your mailing address requesting either the free survey (by law) or detailed survey (for purchase) in the aforementioned communication.

Question #1
Which of the following two choices most suitably depicts how you perceive access to health care in Canada?
I would do whatever was necessary to ensure proper and immediate health care for my loved ones    61 %
I am aware there are difficult choices but I do not believe in buying one’s way to the front of the health care line    39 %
Question #2
Which of the following two forms of tax relief do you prefer?
Cuts to the Goods and Services Tax    65 %
Personal Income Tax relief    35 %
Question #3
Which of the following political leaders do you trust most with your tax dollars?
Stephen Harper    41 %
Jack Layton    29 %
Paul Martin    30 %
Question #4
Which of the following leaders do you most trust with Health Care?
Stephen Harper    35 %
Jack Layton    32 %
Paul Martin    33 %
Question #5
Which federal political leader and party are you currently leaning toward voting for on January 23, 2006?
Paul Martin and federal Liberal Party    29.5 %
Jack Layton and NDP Party    32 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    37 %
Other    04 %
Stephen Harper’s perception of Health Care (question #1) is better received by respondents (61%) than Jack Layton’s is (39%). However this is not the case with respondents between voting age 18 and 45. In the younger of the two demographic segments, (54%) support Layton’s perspective while (46%) support Mr. Harper’s.
Stephen Harper is successful once again in Question #2 as (65%) of respondents prefer GST cuts to personal income tax reductions proposed by Prime Minister Paul Martin. Moreover (69%) of respondents between voting age and 45 years of age support the GST cuts over personal income tax cuts. Slightly less than fourty percent (38%) of respondents in this poll over the age of 40 support reductions to personal income tax over GST reductions.
In Question #3 Stephen Harper is the ‘go to’ politician for respondents in both age segments involved in this study. (41%) of respondents in total trust him the most with tax dollars. Jack Layton and Prime Minister Martin are virtually tied with (29%) and (30%) respectively overall on trust. The 45 and under age group supports Jack Layton the most (37%) while supporting Stephen Harper and Paul Martin equally (32%) and (31%) respectively.
Respondents over the age of 45 overwhelmingly support Stephen Harper on the trust factor with money; with (46%) of respondents in this age segment indicating that they trusted the Conservative Party leader the most with tax dollars. (30%) said they trusted Paul Martin more while (29%) trust Jack Layton.
Stephen Harper is the most trusted with Canada’s Health Care in this poll but the response outcome is close. Overall (35%) trust the Conservative Leader the most, while (32%) trust Jack Layton and Paul Martin equally. The younger age demographic in this study supports Jack Layton the most on Health Care (38%) with Stephen Harper second (34%) and Prime Minister Paul Martin third (28%). The older segment of the population trusts Paul Martin and Stephen Harper equally on Health Care (34%) and Jack Layton third (29%).
According to this poll (37%) of British Columbians would currently vote for Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party in the upcoming federal general election. These numbers are higher in the Northern/Interior and Fraser Valley federal ridings (44%), Vancouver Island (36%) with lower support in the Lower Mainland including Vancouver (33%). Harper’s Team is averaging (25%) in Vancouver City ridings up (6%) from the last general federal election in 2004.
Jack Layton and the New Democrats have support of (31%) of British Columbians with (26%) supporting his party in the North/Interior and Fraser Valley, (34%) on Vancouver Island and (33%) throughout the Lower Mainland including Vancouver.
Paul Martin has the support of (28%) of respondents in the Northern/Interior and Fraser Valley federal ridings with (26%) support on Vancouver Island and (32.5%) throughout the Lower Mainland including Vancouver for a ROBBINS average total of (30%) support from British Columbians.
Insight-Respondents in this poll wondered aloud if inclement weather might discourage voter turnout. In BC…really? Ottawa this time of year is cold to the bone type of awful cold. A native man I spoke with last night told me it was so cold in the winter in Ontario where he was raised that he thought he “saw penguins” in his house. Just as the Germans in World War 2 underestimated the Russian cold, I don’t believe news people have properly considered the type of havoc that weather could play in this federal election. ROBBINS predicts the cold Canadian winter is the Wild Card. I don’t expect to see Chretien supporters braving the minus 20-30 temperatures in some provinces to ensure long line-ups at Canadian borders for another two years, particularly if British Columbians, who have no idea how good they have it, are worried about voter turnout and weather.
MSM has it that the President of a large automobile union in Ontario is going to help the Prime Minister. MSM Pollsters are attempting to reflect a sort of cause and effect with voter intentions. This type of thing simply does not matter to Canadians including union workers. It is why the MSM has allowed political entertainment to override real political news and debate. All Canadians want to know is what the bottom line is with their pocket book. With interest rates rising, and many homeowners leveraged with high mortgages, high gasoline prices, and credit lines taking the annual Christmas beating, the Liberals attempts to sell benefits to provinces (another layer of ‘doubt’), will ultimately fail and Stephen Harper’s GST and $1,200 benefit for children under six in the hands of the people is going to be the big winner with Canadians. You heard it here first.
Stephen Harpers ‘Choices in Child Care’ program is likely to sell better to British Columbians than Paul Martin’s income tax cuts if our question on the GST is any indicator. BC respondents CLEARLY want oversight on their dollars and are not inclined towards government oversight. They simply don’t trust the government and its promises. This election the voters are dealing direct. The GST is a simple mathematical calculation at point of purchase and $1,200 per child under 6 is also more easily identified and incorporated in the day-to-day affairs of family. This is a winning combination for the Harper Conservatives. Clouding up the issue through tax reduction promises is simply a nuisance to British Columbians who want more (not less) “uncomplicated” control over their own affairs, particularly with government that they don’t trust at many levels.
If Canada’s Health Care system isn’t broke it is certainly heading in that direction. Our health care system is average at best. Doctors aren’t happy, nurses aren’t happy, service providers aren’t happy, and anyone who has had to use the system for anything more than conventional care isn’t happy. Yet the system keeps taking more and more money to operate. Something has to happen and the debate must (repeat must) take place fully and completely during this election. This cannot be a run of the mill debate on health care. Candidates need to speak frankly, openly and honestly with citizens so that we can face facts and than move toward solving our health care problems. We are a nation of people who has solved big problems in the past and we will do so with health care if we are all able to discuss it honestly.
Voters in their fifties and sixties are unlikely to have elderly parents to care for to the same extent that those in their thirties and fourties do. Ask anyone who has had to confront the health system in any meaningful way and you will find significant dissatisfaction. In BC provincial politics they just offered the government union workers billions in potential wage increases soon after backing off a giant increase for themselves. These two provincial announcements are helping Stephen Harper as voters continue to resent foolish and wasteful Liberal spending at both the federal and provincial level. Workers are entitled to pay increases but it seems that it is always one group or another that receives the favoritism. It is always a little disconcerting when government prefers to pay government large increases in salary and wages.

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