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Stephen Harper/Al Gore/Equalization/Aboriginal/Same-Sex
  Jun 07, 2006

A random sample of 1,070 respondents throughout every province in Canada, where respondents in Quebec were NOT asked Question #4 or #6, however a factor for Quebec based on trend lines in other questions further factored by the margin of error and balance of probability was used. In addition, ROBBINS made best efforts to conduct Quebec interviews in French particularly in Quebec City (see lower competency). Numbers were averaged and adjusted for population base. This poll was conducted between June 1st-6th, 2006 and was paid for by Glen P. Robbins and Associates including a part sponsorship of $2,500 (Canadian) provided by a Conservative Party supporter. Total cost of poll not including collection of data: $4,335.50. Retail value of poll $16,822.43. It features a margin of error of 3.95% plus or minus @96% competency based on part on Quebec but also as a consequence of the high ‘split’ or 50/50 ratios in most questions which would ordinarily demand a much higher sampling than was actually done for more scientific accuracy. A survey of ‘this many’ questions and 5,000 respondents could be conducted for (retail) under $40,000, with an estimated profit of 110%. Now that’s new technology.

Question #1
In your opinion how would you rate Prime Minister’s Stephen Harper’s job performance to date?
Stephen Harper is doing a very good job as Prime Minister    24 %
Stephen Harper is doing a good job as Prime Minister    29 %
Stephen Harper is doing an average job as Prime Minister    20 %
Stephen Harper is doing a poor job as Prime Minister    19 %
Stephen Harper is a doing a very poor job as Prime Minister    09 %
Question #2
Generally speaking do you support the settlement of aboriginal land claims?
Yes    68 %
No    31 %
Question #3
How strong is your support for aboriginal land claims (to “Yes” in Q#2)? Comment fort est votre soutien pour les reclamations de terre aborigenes?
Very strong    29 %
Strong    42 %
Somewhat strong    29 %
Question #4
Aboriginal claims to land are divided into two distinct areas. Treaties, where verifiable ‘deals’ have been made, and (comprehensive) land claims where no underlying treaties exist, and land claims are made based on historical claims. Which of the following choices best reflects how you perceive these two distinct areas of aboriginal land claim?
I believe both areas of land claims are equally important    34 %
I believe established treaties are more important than non-treaties (comprehensive    26 %
I believe non-treaties land claims are more important than treaty land claims    04 %
I don’t believe that aboriginal land claims are that important    36 %
Question #5
In your opinion did Prime Minister Stephen Harper make the correct decision by proclaiming fixed election dates for Canada? A votre avis le Premier Ministre Stephen Harper a-t-il fait la decision correcte en proclaimant a repore les dates d'election pour Canada?
Yes    74 %
No    26 %
Question #6
In the Mackenzie area of the Northwest Territories, one aboriginal group is a ‘hold out’ to negotiations to commence gas and oil projects in the area. This project could conceivably bring in billions of dollars of revenues from which royalties would be paid to governments. The oil company, which owns the rights, has offered the aboriginal band 30% of the deal plus incentives. In your opinion based on this information is the oil company offering fair compensation to the aboriginal band?
Yes    74 %
No    26 %
Question #7
Prime Minister Harper says he is reviewing whether or not a fraction of non-renewable resources will be used in future equalization payments, while Premier McGuinty of Ontario, and Premier Gordon Campbell of British Columbia, say that NO non-renewable(s) should be factored into the equalization formula. Generally whom do you support? Harper de Premier Ministre dit qu'il reexamine si une fraction de ressources non re nouvelables sera utilisee dans le paiments d'egalisations futurs, pendant que Premier McQuinty de Ontario, et Premier Gordon Campbell de Colombre Britannique?
The Prime Minister who is considering factoring in a portion of non-renewable(s) into equalization payments    54 %
Ontario Premier McGuinty and BC Premier Gordon Campbell who say NO to factoring in non-renewable(s)    46 %
Question #8
Premier McGuinty of Ontario indicates that a ‘cap’ should be placed on the amount that any one province contributes to equalization payments. Year in and year out the Province of Ontario and the Province of Alberta pay a lot of money into the equalization pot. No matter the wealth of any one province, should the federal government and provincial government agree to a cap on the maximum paid out by any one province?
Yes    56 %
No    44 %
Question #9
Prime Minister Harper has indicated that a free vote will be held on same sex marriages in the fall of 2006. In your opinion should your Member of Parliament vote for or against amending the current law supporting same-sex marriage, and which currently provides homosexual/gay/ or same-sex citizens the same rights to marry as heterosexual/straight citizens?
For    49 %
Against    51 %
Question #10
Generally speaking do you support gay marriage as you would marriage between a man and a woman?
Yes    46 %
No    54 %
Question #11
How important is the issue of gay marriage to you?
Very Important    22 %
Important    24 %
Unimportant    29 %
Very Unimportant    25 %
In Canada those respondents who see Stephen Harper’s performance as Prime Minister as “Very Good” or “Good” has risen (18%) over the past two months. Supporters who see his performance as “Good” have risen (26%). Those respondents who see his performance as “Poor” or “Very Poor” has decreased by (3.5%).
In Quebec some dramatic shifts are taking place. The Prime Minister’s “Very Good” performance has increased marginally by (04%). However those respondents who see his performance as “Good” has increased (38%).
In Ontario Prime Minister’s “Very Good” performance rating has fallen (24%). In contrast his “Good” performance has risen (08%).
In British Columbia the PM’s “Very Good” performance is even, his “Good” performance has increased (61%). Stephen Harper’s “Very Poor” performance in BC has remained the same, while his “Poor” performance has decreased by (50%).
An overwhelming majority of Canadians are of the opinion that a one third interest (plus) share of the Mackenzie pipeline ‘oil and gas’ deal as described in Q#6, is ‘more than fair’ to aboriginals.
A slight majority of Canadians would like to see non-renewable resources factored into equalization payments. If one considers support for this outside of Quebec, the country is split.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has professed during an interview with Don Newman on CBC’s political show (aptly named) “Politics”, that the Conservative government is looking at all options on equalization despite saying no to non-renewables in equalization formula’s during the election. With numbers like these a ‘change of heart’ towards the center will not hurt the CPC.
When an NDP MP( Comartin?) on Don Newman’s show suggested with an air of the ‘sky is falling’, that Alberta’s oil revenues could go so high that it would essentially make the relationship between Alberta and Canada untenable, host Newman suggested that ‘not if twenty million people move there’, and then called the show. Now that’s fun politics!
Canadians are split on an amendment to the current federal laws relating to same sex marriage, with (all questions considered) slightly more than one-half leaning towards the idea that marriage ought to be between a man and a woman. A majority of supporters of same sex marriage are more committed to the issue however. Women respondents from suburban telephone prefixes are the most inclined to support same sex marriage on one hand and than say it isn’t important on the other. NB Some of these same respondents were the most likely to complain about ‘gay conduct’ in the community.
Despite the feeling from some respondents that fixed election dates are too “American”, Canadians are ready and willing for this change, which would ultimately free them as ‘hostages’ to the “democratic abuses of power hungry political parties.”
Commentary- Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party of Canada have managed to do something, which few would have ever anticipated one year ago. They have not only been elected, it would appear they are sufficiently popular to win a majority government if an election were held now.
Although they have made only moderate gains in the Province of Ontario since the recent election, the CPC have made very significant gains in Quebec. In addition, these types of noticeable gains are also being made in the Atlantic Provinces and British Columbia. Although some decreases in positive affirmation of Prime Minister Stephen Harper have ‘evolved’ in Alberta and Saskatchewan, how bad can they be when measured against stunning gains in provinces like Quebec, British Columbia, and the Atlantic provinces particularly Nova Scotia.
Aboriginal land claims are complex and completely and utterly misunderstood (or unknown) by Canadians, and thus the support for these, particularly when one considers the conspicuous absence of any concerted public relations by aboriginal groups to get the average Canadian onside, is based mostly on general sentiment, or in some cases simple fatigue.
Canadians demand more transparency in land claims issues, and the very few number of Canadians who actually support so-called “comprehensive” claims speaks to this. There is a pervasive sense amongst the majority of Canadians that aboriginals simply demand too much. The fact that three out of four Canadians believe a one-third share of a potentially massive oil and gas project in the Mackenzie region of the Northwest Territories is fair, when many aboriginal advocates do not, supports this contention.
As the precursor to a comprehensive “Made in Canada” environmental program, non-renewable resources MUST be factored into an equalization regime. At least one out of two Canadians agree. We believe this ‘factoring’ should reflect the overall wealth of a province relative to the percentage of that provinces’ wealth generated by non-renewable resources. It would also send a clear message to others abroad that we are serious about long-term improvements to our environment. This cannot be overstated considering the fact that the United States has probably a better overall environmental history than Canada over the past decade or more. The “cap” proposal acceptable to Canadians in this poll would smooth out the impact of factoring non-renewables to some extent, and it would seem reasonable to only reconsider the impact of the cap if the percentage of non-renewables of a province is exceedingly high relative to other GDP output in that province.
Canadians are not overly interested in same sex issues, however they were promised a vote and are about to get one. Canadians who are open to gay marriage sometimes become less tolerable when newscasts show gay couples being openly affectionate in public, or if they experience this where they live and raise their children. It may seem unfair, but the reality is Canadians are generally a “live and let live” type, until something fundamentally changes in the culture in which they live, and their tolerance for change would seem to diminish marginally.
Insight-The last ROBBINS poll featured British Columbians thoughts on global warming. BC is a progressive province where people enjoy life and aren’t afraid to spend their money (a marketers dream). Immediately following the ROBBINS global warming poll we saw former U.S. Presidential candidate Al Gore come out with his new film phenomenon relating to this issue. Soon afterward Mr. Gore criticized Prime Minister Harper for backing away from Kyoto.
Now no one has more respect for Mr. Gore than ROBBINS. Here is a fellow who some say ought to have been President save for some tricky vote counting, and no-one on the planet has ever shown more class and grace than Al Gore. But I don’t recall President Clinton signing on to Kyoto, but that was so long ago who can remember? Mr. Gore probably helped Mr. Harper more than hurt him. Canadians don’t like hypocrites and Mr. Gore has the best environmental gig going on, he would be more successful appealing to the ‘spiritual’ nature of people rather than selling his wares as a former politician.
During this poll there was much talk about equalization and federal and provincial relations, including inter continental relations over border security overseen by Manitoba’s Premier Gary Doer. However the issue that blew everything else out of the water was the arrest of a number of people who are alleged to be ‘terrorists’ of ‘some type or other’. This type of news makes citizens more alert but also drives Prime Minister Harper’s numbers higher than they already were, and swept Mr. Gore and the global warming conversation off the table altogether.
With regard to Kyoto, really how relevant is Europe and Japan to Canada at this moment in history? Isn’t Quebec particularly Quebec City just like Europe? Isn’t it possible that Canada as it is presently evolving is becoming the new paradigm for how the entire world ought to be? If we are able to implement on the issue of equalization and include fossil fuel amounts in the final formula, we will be well on our way to establishing our new “Made in Canada” solution(s) for environmental sustainability. Canadians are ready, willing and able. The further evidence of this is right here in this poll (74% positive response).
Eventually all of the world will be watching us to see how the most modern nation on the planet handles both of these paramount political problems.

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