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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics September 12, 2008
  Sep 12, 2008

These ROBBINS totals from random telephone sampling derived 711 responses from ‘voters’ from the 39th general federal Canadian election held January 23, 2006 and than asked those respondents who they would vote for in the upcoming federal general election to be held October 14, 2008. This poll was conducted between September 8-13, 2008. (This poll does not properly account for potential new voters, or those who did not vote in the last general federal election who may be eligible). However, at ROBBINS we believe that the validity of the respondents in this poll is more likely to represent more serious voters across the country. It is thus our opinion that this poll has a margin of error of 2.098% plus or minus @95% confidence/conducted 19 out of 20 times. (85) From British Columbia; (164) from Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba; (250) from Ontario; (151) from Quebec and (61) from Atlantic Provinces including: (20) from Newfoundland and Labrador and (22) from the riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia-with the balance from New Brunswick and P.E.I.
This poll was sponsored in part by Jim Van Rassel--who is a Conservative Party member--and is a candidate for city council in the City of Coquitlam, Toney Tri-City region home to the enviro friendly Burke Mountain development-7,500 new residents--and no transportation to speak of. Jim Van Rassel can be reached at (604) 328-5398.

Question #1
For which leader and party did you vote in the last general federal election? (Adjusted for gender from raw data for gender).
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    35.5 %
Paul Martin and Liberals    30.4 %
Jack Layton and NDP    17.2 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc    10.4 %
Jim Harris and Green    4.3 %
Question #2
If the election were held today for which leader and party would you caste your ballot? (Rotated)
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    38.5 %
Stephane Dion and Liberals    24.5 %
Jack Layton and NDP    22 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc    07 %
Elizabeth May and Green    08 %
Undecided    23 %
Question #3
If you were to bet $50.00 knowing that if your bet were correct you would double your money, which leader would you bet the $50.00 on to win the Prime Minister’s job on October 14, 2008?
Stephen Harper    71 %
Stephane Dion    11 %
Jack Layton    18 %
Undecided    09 %
Question #4
Of the following three choices ONLY-- whom would YOU prefer for Prime Minister?
Stephen Harper    52 %
Stephane Dion    17 %
Jack Layton    21 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    10 %
Question #5
If the general federal election were held tomorrow which party would you caste your ballot if party alone was the basis of your decision?
Conservative Party    33 %
Liberal Party    24 %
NDP Party    24 %
Green Party    11 %
Bloc Quebecois Party    07 %
Undecided    06 %
Question #6
Which of the following factors is the primary driver in determining how you determine your vote?
The Leader of the Party    36 %
The Party    43 %
The local candidate    21 %
Undecided    09 %
Question #7
This question relates to the party label only. Which political party instills the most positive feelings for you right now?
Conservative party    32 %
Liberal party    23 %
New Democrat party    25 %
Green party    13.5 %
Bloc Quebecois party    07 %
Question #8
Who best to represent the Green Party?
Blair Wilson who has a Green seat in the Canadian House of Commons of Canada and who currently represents the West Vancouver riding in British Columbia which is hosting the 2010 Olympic Games—the so-called 2010 Green Olympics    21 %
Elizabeth May, Green Party leader who has announced her support for Liberal leader Stephane Dion    17 %
Undecided/Don’t Know/Don’t Care    62 %
Stephen Harper is very popular whether respondents choose him on preference or predicated on financial reward. His Conservative Party is much less popular than he is. Based on allocation of voter decision making in this ROBBINS poll: leader (36%), party (43%), or local candidate (21%) it appears that many Canadians-are still leaving their options open.
(Orthodox allocation of voter decision making is usually approximately: (70%) party, (25%) leader and (5%) local candidate). However orthodoxies and norms—at this stage of the election (both here and in the United States) reveal a different type of ‘swing’ voter—a rogue with a reformist spirit.
Who better than a rogue with a reformist spirit to interview them? ROBBINS Rogue Polls.
No matter, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s numbers are so solid there is little doubt his Conservatives will win this election—unless he blunders badly. If he does, it might just be Jack Layton and the New Democrats that benefit as Stephane Dion’s leadership totals continue to tank.
The federal Democrats have their highest popular support in British Columbia (32%), but have inched ahead in Ontario (22%) and have are trending upward quickly in Quebec (19%). Based on the population of Canada’s three largest provinces Jack Layton and the New Democrats have nearly (23%) of popular support-- a number not inconsistent with Democratic support in the Prairie provinces (23%) and Atlantic provinces (20%).
Stephen Harper, Prime Minister is preferred by (40%) of Quebecors, (53%) of Ontario voters, and (38%) of British Columbians. His Conservative Party is preferred by (32%) of British Columbians—a number more consistent throughout the lower mainland of that province-- including Vancouver. Prime Minister Harper has (40%) popularity in Newfoundland-and his party is at (34%). It is our opinion Premier Danny Williams might be helping the Prime Minister more than hurting him. The Conservative party is supported by (33%) of respondents in Ontario if they were to vote tomorrow based on party alone, while (25%) of respondents in Quebec support his Conservative Party.
Canadians are more inclined to believe that Blair Wilson the Green Party member with a seat in the House of Commons is BEST to represent the Green Party of Canada. Can we presume that this means Blair Wilson should represent the Green Party in the leader’s debate? When we designed the question is was our impression that Elizabeth May would not be allowed to participate in the debates.
If these numbers hold up, federal NDP candidate Zoey Royer may give Conservative Secretary of State James Moore a run for his political riding in wealthy Coquitlam/Westwood/Port Coquitlam, in the province of British Columbia (featuring world ranked BC Bud). Will James Moore get benefit of Mr. Harper’s high popularity or the drifting political label ‘Conservative’ (Tory may not be any better)? Why the gap between the national average for Stephen Harper which remains very high and the Conservative support in Mr. Moore’s riding which has dropped from over 47% as a Reformer and Canadian Alliance member to (30-33%) in the same region? In Moore’s riding, close ties to a fast dying BC Liberals Party, while the Liberals label overall tanks, and traffic congestion so bad it is provoking road rage—may give his opponents a real shot at a surprise win.
What is the deal between PM Harper and his party? Does this mean that if Harper gets a majority he will clean his Conservative House? I think it does. If the Conservatives get a majority its likely because of their leader, unless the public rallies round the party as well. I expect that this will be done through the candidate at the local level—if it happens at all. An election result of 45% for the Conservatives means that the Canadian public is backing the Prime Minister and the party. These numbers suggest the public that is watching closely—and currently hedging its bets. If the Conservatives achieve a solid majority (160-180) of seats and received < (40%) of votes owing to vote splits, they will be beset by problems of legitimacy for the subsequent four years.
If on the other hand the Conservatives achieve a bare majority—or close to one and < (40%) of votes, Canadians will be happy—at least according to these numbers. In order to comfortably govern with a larger majority the Conservatives will want (43-45%) of votes from Canadians. The reluctance of Canadians to embrace the Conservative Party in the same way they do its leader, Prime Minister Stephen Harper—suggests to me at this stage of the game that Canadians would be happy to see Conservatives with 145-153 seats, the New Democrats replacing the Liberals as Opposition—or sharing Opposition status with the Liberals, while the Greens hold one or two seats, and the Bloc holds 25 or so.
This poll suggests that the Green will benefit more if Blair Wilson represents the Greens at the leaders debate (would Stephane Dion approve of this?) rather than Elizabeth May. Does Elizabeth May have the courage to see through her own desire and her own ego—to realize the potential of this move? There are vacuums available here and bold choices could make phenomenal differences particularly as the public is warming more to underdog political party labels---and less happy with the two main ones.
Jack Layton and his Democratic party are trending upwards. He has been around as leader of the federal NDP party for awhile, on balance has had success—but has never (in my opinion) been given the credit he deserves-perhaps because he just hasn’t turned the corner, yet. The election is looking up for J.L. and his NDP but is his party as good as the early numbers. Is NDP trending upward or have they peaked owing to the high percentage of 2006 voters in this ROBBINS poll.
Elizabeth May won a victory for her party—and now while everyone is still reveling in that success—someone has to sit her down and give her some political science/public relations advice that will benefit her party through a larger audience—predicated on the need for the media to explain Blair Wilson’s participation in the debates-and the fact that Wilson is a former Liberal. May can utilize the rift between Wilson and Stephane Dion to reflect her withdraw of political support for his leadership. This is all Green time---I mean all Green time—at little cost to the party treasury.
ROBBINS--the most accurate public opinion pollster in the World.
Glen P. Robbins

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