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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics September 25, 2008
  Sep 25, 2008

720 calls to 'voters'--strategic respondents--started on Friday last until Friday--this date--calling between Monday and Thursday more consistent. Science puts margin of error at or about 3.0%- 4.0%--but I would say that were dealing with 2-2.5% because I think the Conservatives-NDP-Bloc-Green numbers are tight--Liberals less sure up or down. Calls were distributed on factor of population. Ontario 37%+ Quebec 23%+ etc. Questions other than support are 2.4% range unless result is lopsided--than margin of error is less. Jim Van Rassel helped with the cost of poll. Voter support question asks in your opinion and who would you vote for--rather than who do you think you would vote for. Tighter question likely better result.

Question #1
For which leader and party did you vote in the last federal general election? (Adjusted to approximate population on provincial respondent’s participation-and approximate voting trend in areas of strategic calling).
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    35.23 %
Paul Martin and Liberals    31.20 %
Jack Layton and New Democrats    17.23 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc    9.41 %
Jim Harris and Green    4.88 %
Question #2
For which leader and party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? (Adjusted for gender)
Stephen Harper and Conservatives    38.20 %
Jack Layton and New Democrats    22.50 %
Stephane Dion and Liberals    23.60 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc    7.20 %
Elizabeth May and Green    8.80 %
Undecided    18 %
Question #3
The United States is going through a financial crisis. Historically, when the United States economy goes through difficulties Canada usually follows. The question here is: are you concerned that Canada’s economy will suffer as a consequence of economic problems in the United States?
Yes    46 %
No    42 %
Undecided    12 %
Question #4
Federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion wants to bring back Income Trusts cancelled by the Conservative government. With Income Trusts all corporate profits go to shareholders instead of some of those profits going to the federal government’s treasury, and there is little or no reinvestment of earnings. Do you agree with Stephane Dion’s plan to bring back Income Trusts?
Yes    16 %
No    70 %
Undecided    14 %
Question #5
Stephane Dion says that his Green Shift Plan is revenue neutral. Do you agree or disagree with Stephane Dion’s Green Shift Plan?
Agree    20 %
Disagree    45 %
I have no idea what revenue neutral means    24 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #6
Although it is early in the federal election, many are concluding that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives will form the next government-the only question remaining what type of government will that be? For purposes of this question only, and assuming for this question only, that Stephen Harper would form the next government—from the following choices what type of government would you prefer that Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party have?
A bare majority where the Conservatives have 155 of 309 seats in the House, one more vote than all the other parties combined    10 %
A Super majority of 180 to 200 of 309 seats where the Conservatives easily have enough seats in the House to pass any laws they deem proper    24 %
A Super minority where the Conservatives are short of a majority-and still need some votes from another political party    35 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    31 %
Question #7
Jack Layton of the Canadian New Democrats has asserted that his party could form a coalition with the federal Liberal Party to form government and to block the Conservatives from forming a majority government? Are you open to the idea of a New Democrat-Liberal coalition to block the Conservatives from forming a majority government?
Yes    48 %
No    48 %
Undecided    04 %
Question #8
During the last parliament the federal Liberal opposition party on a number of occasions refused to vote. In your opinion—as a consequence of this—and other Liberal actions does Jack Layton and the New Democrats NOW deserve a chance to be Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives?
Yes    51 %
No    41 %
Undecided    08 %
Stephane Dion and his federal Liberal party is fading, while the Bloc party in Quebec sees its support bumping up and down. No matter, the Bloc is confident because even if they lose some support they have 25-30 ridings that are solid—and others that are strong. To make a real move towards a majority government, the Conservatives would need to bust the Bloc wide open-- and though we have them close—in this ROBBINS poll----- the Conservatives have 3-5 additional seats in Quebec to add to totals—maybe. The Conservatives and Canadian New Democrats have improved and/or are improving in Quebec but will incremental gains—be enough?
Stephane Dion’s Income Trust policy grabs the attention of a few Conservative supporters but confuses most others—who if they had an interest in it-- lost it to the 22/11 crisis on Wall Street —. In addition Green supporters are confused about Mr. Dion’s policy incongruence ‘twixed’ the Income Trust (‘wealthier’ voter’s profit) and Green Shift (all voters make world greener-pay a tax). The federal Liberals are a country mile from reconciling these two policies intellectually-- although it might be accomplished over a first class dinner and an expensive bottle of excellent red wine from beautiful British Columbian (particularly our Okanagan wines---award winning-seriously good wines).
Mr. Dion does better with his Green Shift, but the high numbers who admit they don’t understand ‘revenue neutral’are more likely to see this as Liberal ‘shifty’ —and it is even more unlikely that Mr. Dion’s communication skills will NOT serve him well in this regard without more Canadians connected to him and more Canadians actually paying attention to the race. Elizabeth May calling Canadians ‘stupid’ over this—as unintentional as that might have been—is now haunting environmental advocates as gloomy, sobering economic news accompany Canadian voters as they head to winter months and Christmas costs. (cue: Volga Boat Song).
A majority of ALL respondents (including Undecided) do not want Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party to have a majority. In fact, a significant number of those who support both he and his Conservative Party aren’t supporting a majority government for them. However, if Undecided’s come off the rails and ‘disburse’ to parties in the same ratio as public opinion currently reflects—and the Conservatives jump over (40%) I believe that will be the signal that they may be breaking upward toward 43-44%. I keep talking about it-but Harper put the taxpayers money in Quebec---he put the taxpayers money in Ontario----to Chantal—from Sir Rogue---this cultural thing isn’t resonating as it should—shortage of money—or perceived fiscal prudence---but your right Quebec wants money for culture—and if you grease them---the whole country gets it.
For Stephen Harper to win Quebec he has to hurt Gilles Duceppe or knock him out in the debates. It’s a tug-of-war now and the Conservatives are close to blowing the horn.
It’s weird, because the Liberals responded so slowly in policy announcements—particularly as this respects the U.S. economic situation. Some pundits have suggested the Liberals start talking about the 90’s. The world has changed since the 90’s—a lot-----this suggests clearly the Liberals are rallying their core support on values. It’s too thin—a bad strategy. Liberals and New Democrats need to focus their attention on Mr. Harper, his party and relationships to big corporations---while putting some suasion on our own banking and lending institutions to let us know ‘what’s up’?
We sure don’t want to be asking these questions a year from now when the quasi-legislated fixed elections came (turned) about. Consumer/voter choices should never be one between catastrophe---and survival. The States has been Primed for this decision—but that is not where the collective Canadian head is at.
According to these suggested numbers, the Conservative Party will gain 8-15 seats in Ontario. Although the New Democrats are scraping away at Bloc-the Liberals Quebec flank is being eaten-like Tyrannosaurus eating away at one of the larger plant eating dinosaur. There are 30-40 seats that the Bloc has won easily—consistently---and marginal declines in public support for the party in Quebec will not move a Bloc MP out of most of these seats. The Conservatives have 3-5 seats in play in Quebec currently—and will need to bust the Bloc hold to break through for more. The Conservatives may have minor seat gains in Atlantic Canada and Manitoba right now, but New Democrats will scrap with Conservatives for Liberal ‘bones’ in the west—.
Jack Layton originally introduced his NDP-Liberal coalition concept-without the prospect of a Harper majority included-as we did in the question. He may want to revise his approach with that latter condition now apparent, at least he has Gilles Duceppe’s ‘hand’ on discussions of this possibility/.
Many Conservatives are just as happy as New Democrats to see Jack Layton and his party in Loyal Opposition-with some Conservatives saying “he deserves it”. It is certainly nice to be magnanimous when you are winning.
64.7% of eligible voter’s caste their ballot in the 39th general federal Canadian election held on January 23, 2006. Although ‘voters’ from the ROBBINS jury are returning, it is slow and unless there is a large number of Canadians eligible to vote in this 40th general federal election-who are not represented in this ROBBINS poll, I would guess that 60%-of voters will turn-out. To date ROBBINS estimates that turn-out is currently at (53%).
According to this poll-after all adjustments, the Conservatives have the support of (39.36%) of the population. The Liberals have (22.84%). The Canadian New Democrats have (22.85%), officially taking the lead for second place in terms of public support from the Liberals in this election.
The Bloc Quebecois has (8.03%) and the Greens (8.11%).
The Conservatives have increased public support since the January 23, 2006 election ‘overall by’ 11.8%, while the Liberals decreased public support by (24.3%). The New Democrats have increased public support by (30.6%).
The Bloc has lost (24.5%) public support since the 2006 election while the Green Party has gained (80.3%) in public support.
The Conservatives have (38%) in Ontario up from (35%) in January 2006 or an increase of approximately (01%) nationally. The Conservatives have (31%) in Quebec up from (24.6%) in January 2006 or an increase of (6.5%) or (1.3%) nationally.
The Conservatives have risen from 32-33% in British Columbia to 37%-38% roughly where they were after the 2006 election. The governing party has also increased popularity in Manitoba by (5.5%) or approximately one-fifth of a percent nationally. An (8.0%) increase in Saskatchewan has increased totals nationally by slightly better than one third of a percent. With current public support in the Atlantic Provinces gaining mere basis points—one can see that the Conservatives are truly a national party on the move-albeit by inches and meters at this point.
The problem with this picture for the Conservatives is this: Only 80% of current decided support from Conservatives want a super majority for their party. “Harper doesn’t have the Team for a super majority like that”.
ROBBINS-Frankly, I have found Stephane Dion better in each of the last two weeks—these numbers may be having a delayed reaction to current news events—hard to say. The election saga in the United States is pretty noisy here in Canada.
Canadian people are near to shitting their pants on the economy---they’re jut of jaw---but you cannot deny the massive influence U.S. economic fortunes has traditionally on our economic fortunes. If we have any dirty laundry on this account—any---let’s get it out---right now. If this is absolutely not the case-------we’ll soldier on.
This election---is almost like it’s not actually happening. It’s not boring—not by any stretch---it’s subtle---like it could go crazy. This poll—may be better science—to me—but I wouldn’t bet the results. Voters get engaged enough---depends if promotion gets turned up----this stuff could swing on something. When tough times may be oft, the people have to take a look---get involved with your government elections. These are the only thing that separates us from animals.
There are two sides to NDP Jack Layton’s position on the Canada Softwood Lumber deal. Those who say the deal is done—it is disrespectful to our neighbours to the south including workers—who don’t want any more upset. There are some in hard hats saying this---. Hardhat does not make a worker per se, but a hardhat is closer to being a worker than a suit---the suit is though of as being on the boss’s side. Even high paid managers are being tossed aside---twenty years of service---it isn’t just blue collar workers—all workers are getting less respect. We need to know we are going to get more accountability and transparency from government—not less.
I have seen personally the worst side of public service—and (although I am obviously bias)---it’s dreadful. I have also seen the good side---like only waiting for an hour to get my daughter into emergency. Is Canada getting better or worse?
The people need to have confidence a country can be solvent for an entire year. Now if the United States is the most powerful one in a system of countries on the planet—you can imagine the impact. We’re just in the beginning of this world economy—that is why we have to spend money wisely but with a view to a destiny not merely an economic objective--- in terms of better assessing the value of better education on the economy. We need the social safety net solid, labour legislation sensible and compassionate—not this old English tightwad-we need to make better of our relations with labour. We’re all grown ups here---profits for companies increase 9% year over year with increases in wages less than half of that over a similar period of time. No (w) bail-outs//the stall//will let the Republicans reconfigure the politics of the economy//McCain has no choice//even close he comes up short//Palin has to go sweet home Alabama that’s how I see America-that’s how many down homers see the world—the same as Sarah Palin does—
that folksy thing presents an exceptionally sweet segue for Sarah Palin. That’s how a lot of Americans view the crisis in the Middle East. The average person isn’t Henry Kissinger---. Israel is our friend and those other guys are our enemies—isn’t that what you have been harping about for six years---------exactly why do we need a trillion dollar bail-out and talk more slowly this time. Why would anyone judge or mock Sarah Palin over an interview—is this a club---watch out---Palin is honestly perceived as a regular person---going to Washington---.
With Obama knocking McCain around this week—it’s hard to know if this is how it is—or just another McCain tactic—setting up a big win in this Friday’s debate as yet the next comeback.
But was that deal during the Democratic race between Hillary and Barack. That race was so tense and so dense---no wonder they didn’t hook up---two equal personalities—intellectually---looks everything. But you won’t re-create the same magic twice—the country like the election has to shuffle on.
If John McCain wasn’t hurt---I believe that---the political cunning he has displayed to date is nearly diabolical. This pressure is coming down the road on the Palin campaign---I thought that was cool—even if it wasn’t the right thing to do. Funny, she still has the curiosity around her big time. I think people get the sense that Sarah Palin is more like them. She’s one of those who was good at stuff-and actually gets a shot at the brass rail. As the U.S. economy kneels at the weight of shifting gears—a structural 360 turnabout that the market cannot handle—cannot handle the load—government has a place.
When the stock market needs a huge bail-out like this—hand the keys over to the Canadian/American farmers and walk away.
Mr. Harper, --- we conservatives here in Canada--- can’t believe that labour is responsible for what is happening in the States. You’re an economist---let’s talk about jobs—what jobs are we creating through private enterprise-public participation.////and how do we reconcile this with your accountability promises made during the 2006 general federal election---when big corporation is a dirty word.
Take a look at what Jim Van Rassel is doing with his home in Burke Mountain—coming to an eco friendly neighbourhood that is beyond compare. A 2,500 sq ft home environmentally perfect—and a neighbourhood of over 200,000 people we once called the Tri-City British Columbia----what many are now calling the sexiest neighbourhood in the country----. With the fabulous Evergreen Line coming any day now---starting up---getting started---moving forward---showing signs of life---coming into being—motion---significantly short of money—probably not starting any time soon---maybe not starting at all.
I’m also not certain if cultural things are as important to Canadians as they ought to be—right now ----at least that is my opinion---particularly if ‘things’ get a little tougher---no harm in being careful---but positive and looking for success. If culture isn’t getting money---at least the Olympics is getting attention. Naturally, with uncertainty about the economy—voters must be interested in the ozone depleting costs of the games. Now—VANOC has decided to trademark a portion of Canada’s national anthem and share the ‘grab’ with the IOC an International organization out of Switzerland—home of human resources mega giants and consulting companies that already control Canadians everyday lives.
You aren’t a real city until you have a real library.
In case you are interested—there is no Canada as we once knew it. We are currently the world’s ‘pin-cushion’. After hearing the VANOC rep suggest that they had to take legal ownership of whatever—from Canada’s national anthem—based on fear that those words could be placed on another website—where tickets could be sold---well—using that logic how about “Home and Native Land” for selling phony Olympic tickets---or aboriginal art—or “We stand on guard for thee”—or “O Canada”. Based exclusively on VANOC’s rationale and the presses non-response—it is possible that Elizabeth May might be correct to the extent that organizations, government, and the press think we are stupid.Is this why fewer and fewer people are paying attention---and the core of the drama in this federal election originates from chaos from the Internet?
Let’s go count our marbles—and see what we can get out to our people—to meet their needs and advance a standard of living that most Canadians have come to enjoy—but let’s know exactly what we have got on hand----measure any business upsets with the utility of helping them—not subsidies—the public (the mob) will behead you for that behaviour---.
Glen P. Robbins

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