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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics April 1, 2011
  Apr 01, 2011

Question #1
If this current 41st federal general election in Canada were held tomorrow, based on your opinion today, for which leader and party would you caste your ballot?
Stephen Harper the The Conservative Party of Canada    33.92 %
Michael Ignatieff and The Liberal Party of Canada    29.68 %
Jack Layton and The New Democratic Party of Canada    20.63 %
Gilles Duceppe and The Bloc Quebecois    9.14 %
Elizabeth May and The Green Party of Canada    6.63 %
This is the first independent poll provided by ROBBINS Sce Research relating to the 41st general federal election in Canada.
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada
Conservative Party support numbers are clearly down from 2008 election totals and very clearly down from what mainstream pollsters have suggested their support is.
Ontario holds at (36%) roughly what they achieved in 2008. Quebec is also down slightly and BC is down (10%). Between these three largest Canadian provinces the decline in support from 2008 election totals reflects a decline of nearly (2%) nationally.
Conservative support in Alberta (56%) has been factored by lower numbers for voter turnout which combined with the (2%) national decline from Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia would make Conservative totals more like 36% than the (34%) they score in this ROBBINS Sce Research poll.
What is interesting is how well the Conservatives are doing in Atlantic Canada particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador. Population in Canada's Atlantic Provinces impacts on national totals far less than the other provinces particularly Ontario, Quebec, BC and Alberta.
This is important when we consider national support relative to seat distribution.
Stephen Harper's Conservatives are on the move in Newfoundland and Labrador where just 2 and one half years ago - they were not well supported.
The Conservative Party of Canada support in the Atlantic Provinces is as follows: Newfoundland and Labrador (42%), New Brunswick (38%), Prince Edward Island (40%) and Nova Scotia (30%).
Despite the lower national totals for The Conservatives the inroads they have made into the Atlantic Provinces while giving little in Ontario, Quebec and BC suggest to us that they are down a net 5-6 seats nationally.
Early in the election this has to be good news for Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party who has equaled the Liberals in their domain of the Atlantic Provinces and will eventually face down Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party in seat rich Ontario for the final showdown.
British Columbia is as pollster Harris Decima has suggested - volatile, however we get the sense there is movement throughout the country.
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada
Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party of Canada are clearly moving forward from their dismal 2008 general election performance under former leader Stephane Dion.
After losing 26 seats to the Conservatives and New Democrats in the 2008 election, Ignatieff is in the game and he looks bloody good in his first week on the trail - though many voters are still waiting to see if this new Liberal dude is as good as the early going is showing.
The Liberals are up (20%) from horrible totals in British Columbia and sitting at (24.5%) in Quebec. The Liberals are holding their own elsewhere and here is where ROBBINS differs from the mainstream pollsters: we have The Conservatives and Liberals tied in Ontario at (36%).
Currently, we speculate that Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party are up about 7-8 seats from 2008, needing to beat the Conservatives in Ontario and punch through to (30%) plus in Quebec.
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party of Canada// On their face the Jack Layton federal New Democrat numbers are outstanding over (20%) nationally. Jack Layton is up slightly in British Columbia but needs to break through there.
The New Democrats are holding their support in Ontario and are a little softer in support in Atlantic Canada.
The exciting news is that the New Democrats are charging forward in Quebec apparently at the expense of the Green Party and residually the other parties. The (18%) in support reflected in this ROBBINS poll for the New Democrats is the equivalent of a (2%) increase in national support and far above what other pollsters have suggested either nationally or in Quebec for the New Democrats.
If Jack Layton wants to make serious inroads in Quebec, he must seriously consider permitting - possibly the best Parliamentarian in this country Thomas Mulcair - take his place in the French language debates.
The attention alone - from news media over such a brilliant move would be worth a million dollars of advertising.
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada
Elizabeth May and her Green Party of Canada totals remained unchanged on a national basis but their configuration among the regions does.
Her Party receives far greater support in the west and Ontario than in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. (10%) BC, (7%) Alberta, (5%) in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, (9%) in Ontario, (2%) in Quebec, and just < than 4% throughout the Atlantic Provinces.
Elizabeth May must get into the House of Commons or her Green Party of Canada will be reduced to the status of influence only. Quebec doesn't want her despite their pro Kyoto and very Green position on the environment and Global warming, however BC and Ontario are still buying her act.
She must run a national campaign with candidates in every riding as she has promised, but focus the real attention only on 2-3 seats that she might win-- including, particularly her own.
If Elizabeth May can defeat Conservative incumbent Gary Lunn (Saanich and the Islands), and Stephen Harper's seat numbers decrease in BC, in another minority government - Elizabeth May and the Green Party will begin to have some leverage in Canadian politics. Otherwise - Canadians will likely say "been nice to know you".
Gilles Duceppe and The Bloc Quebecois are down 10% from their 2008 general election totals.
So what?
The Bloc was down in many polls in 2008 sometimes as much as (20%) and only lost 2 seats. With Harper appearing to abandon his wasteful efforts in the province - the first leader to pledge equivalent compensation to the province relating to Quebec's agreeing to the HST - may or may not make inroads in the seat rich La Belle Province.
Harper promised an arena for Quebec then changed his mind, Michael Ignatieff came in behind and said he would fund that area and any others in Canada with a province and a country hungry for a return of the Stanley Cup (see Vancouver Canucks).
Layton can overshadow all with the ROBBINS - Mulcair move in the debates.
Why be afraid to win?
Methodology - A targeted survey of 2,060// 2008 voters from the 40th general federal election in Canada conducted between March 24-March 30, 2011 during the first week of the 41st federal general election currently underway. Respondent participation from each province is commensurate with population with the exception of the Atlantic Provinces where respondents were overall 1.5 times the number of each respective province in the Atlantic Provinces including: New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador.
The Margin of Error ("MOE") of this poll is 2.16%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.
An honorarium was provided by New Trend Optical of Port Coquitlam, British Columbia and Jim Van Rassel (604) 942-9300. Mr. Van Rassel has indicated his desire to run as an Independent Conservative candidate in the federal BC riding of Port Moody, Westwood, Port Coquitlam currently held by Conservative MP James Moore.

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