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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics April 24, 2011
  Apr 24, 2011

Question #1
Which provincial party in British Columbia do you support most right now? (Party's to 100%)
BC New Democrats    36.3 %
BC Liberals    29.4 %
BC Conservatives    24.8 %
BC Greens    7.4 %
Independent/Other    2.1 %
Undecided    13 %
Question #2
In your opinion should the federal government in Ottawa be permitted to take control of all regulation of securities - equities and financial instruments currently controlled by the Province of British Columbia?
Yes    21 %
No    57 %
Undecided    22 %
Question #3
Of the following 2 response choices which one BEST reflects your perspective of what is most important for you?
Ensuring a strong and resilient Canada Health Act    67 %
Developing economic global agreements with large markets for business in India and China    27 %
Undecided    6 %
Question #4
The BC Liberal government plans to spend over $2,000,000 of B.C. tax payers money selling the benefits of the HST to you in the coming weeks. In your opinion is this:
A reasonable thing to do    61 %
Throwing good money after bad    39 %
Question #5
BC Liberal finance minister Kevin Falcon has suggested he may take 2% off the HST before the Referendum on the HST this summer. In your opinion is this:
A good idea    72 %
A bad idea    18 %
Undecided    10 %
Question #6
In your opinion, how important is it to you that Stephen Harper win a majority government in order to stop Quebec from separating from Canada next year?
Very Important    16.5 %
Important    15 %
Not Important    20.5 %
Very Unimportant    48 %
Question #7
Major media working in conjunction with the BC Liberal government has been pre-conditioning the B.C. public for a number of weeks relating to the prospect of a provincial election in the fall of this year. We are currently in the midst of a federal election, will be voting on the HST in a few months, and have municipal elections this November. Are you open to the idea of a provincial general election in 2011?
Yes    18 %
No    82 %
Question #8
BC has been lead by a Premier from the City of Vancouver for twenty years. In your opinion is it important to change this trend and elect a Premier from outside the City of Vancouver.
Yes    47 %
No    43 %
Undecided    10 %
At the same time as the winds of political change are blowing through the Canadian federal election, so too are provincial political preferences changing. The BC New Democrats have just elected a new leader, Adrian Dix of Vancouver. Party support for the NDP has dropped (13%) from the most recent general provincial election in May 2009, while at the same time party support has also dropped for the Christy Clark BC Liberal government (36%). The obvious benefactor is the BC Conservative Party, which factored little in the previous provincial election - and who will elect its new leader, likely former federal Conservative Party MP John Cummins-- at the end of May 2012.
This federal election has split the former BC Liberal coalition in two - and the sooner both centre right parties recognize this reality and seize upon potential advantages rather than denying them the better for them. The BC Liberals are close to a statistical tie with the BC New Democrats and are in a statistical tie with the BC Conservatives.
The BC New Democrats score (decided) (28%) in the North and Interior, (30%) in the Fraser Valley, (37%) in the Lower Mainland of the province, and (52%) on Vancouver Island.
The BC Liberals score (31%) in the North and Interior, (34%) in the Fraser Valley, (31%) in the Lower Mainland of the province and (20%) on Vancouver Island.
The BC Conservatives score (34%) in the North and Interior, (32%) in the Fraser Valley, (20%) in the Lower Mainland of the province and (18%) on Vancouver Island.
The BC Greens score (6%) in the North and Interior, (3%) in the Fraser Valley, (10%) in the Lower Mainland of the province and (8%) on Vancouver Island.
A clear majority of British Columbians across party lines do not want its security regulator moved from Victoria to Ottawa. Many respondents fear growing centralization in Ontario - fast becoming the new bogeyman to British Columbians many of whom are disappointed in Stephen Harper and his apparent lack of commitment to promises he made to voters in other provinces than Ontario-- on the way to Ottawa. The minority of respondents who support this are mixed between BC Liberal and BC Conservative supporters.
A majority of British Columbians favour “A strong resilient Canada Health Act” over “Further economic agreements with emerging global markets in India, China and elsewhere.” The contrast in respondent anecdote ranges from the majority who believe the Canada Health Act is in jeopardy and fear its hand over to private enterprise -whose involvement in health care is not welcomed, while the minority believe that more global business is required to create more jobs with resulting taxation creating more monies to support health care - this latter opinion is stifled somewhat by a type of protectionist attitude among many BC Conservative and BC Liberal Party supporters who follow the BC New Democrat and BC Green lead along this line.
Most British Columbians may have made up their mind on the HST, but a majority are still willing to hear the Government’s pitch to them leading up to the Referendum date. (44%) of respondents don’t want to spend another dollar on the debate - one can only expect that these respondents are not voting for the HST--unless (see Question 5).
Question 5 responses really throw a wrench into any preconceived notions about a Referendum outcome against the HST. In question four (44%) of British Columbians indicated they did not want their government to spend $2 million on the HST polling numbers against have consistently been (65-70%)- yet a clear majority will accept a 2% reduction “prior to the Referendum”. Can we assume therefore that a 2% reduction to the reduction keeps the HST? Mr. Harper needs to come to BC before election day and help us sort this out with his Conservative counterparts aligned with the BC Liberals - namely finance minister Kevin Falcon and former Canadian Alliance leader, Conservative MP and Treasury Board President Stockwell Day.
Let there be no doubt - a general provincial election in 2011 - at least at this point in time - is not acceptable to an overwhelming number of British Columbians (82%). Sorry Christy - Actions do speak louder than words - trying to finesse your way into a mandate is not going to work in this electoral traffic jam--and not with these numbers. Better to concentrate on getting plugged into the Legislature first - and leave anticipated shoe in leader for the BC Conservatives John Cummins on the outside--looking in.
Whatever combination of reasons British Columbians have for giving or not giving Prime Minister Stephen Harper a majority government -Quebec separating is not exclusively the one to make that happen. (31.5%) of British Columbians are of the opinion that “Stephen Harper winning (sic) a majority” “In order to keep Quebec from separating”-- is either “Very Important” or “Important” enough.
The fact that British Columbians have elected a Premier who represents a constituency in the City of Vancouver for twenty years may or may not play out in some way as an election issue in the next BC general provincial election - considering that both Adrian Dix (BC NDP) and Christy Clark (BC Liberal) are from Vancouver - Mr. Dix represents a riding in Vancouver while Christy Clark is hoping to win a seat in that city--very soon. Mr. Cummins (BC Conservative) does not have a provincial seat though he represented Delta a suburb of Vancouver in Ottawa and Jane Sterk (BC Green) does not have a seat but resides and has represented the BC Green Party in a general provincial election in a riding located in a suburb of Victoria, BC on Vancouver Island.
It would appear that senior government’s are attempting to centralize the control of money and politics - while British Columbians move in the opposite direction. What to tell the One World Government proponents - next time they call?
Methodology: A targeted Strategic Calling Environment survey of 1,218 British Columbia voters - who voted in the most recent B.C. Provincial general election of May 2009. This survey was conducted in part from British Columbia and in part from out of province with totals combined, between April 16-23, 2011. The Margin of Error (M.O.E.) is 2.81%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.
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