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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics July 12, 2012
  Jul 12, 2012

Commentary by Peter Kelly The path to a fourth term appears very bleak for BC Liberals.
The unlikely journey to power and a 4th term is getting even more unlikely for the governing BC Liberal as each week passes. It is possible; but the 'political' stars have to align just least as far as northern and interior BC seats are concerned as this ROBBINS poll attests.
Outside the lower mainland and Vancouver Island, there is no dramatic front runner. This means the whole of non-urban BC is a swing seat. It used to be an easy walk for the BC Liberals to count all of the Kelowna seats, most of Prince George, and all of the Peace River region, leaving Kamloops as the only competitive seats they needed to fight for(as it is historically THE political bellweather political region of the province).
To suggest that the Okanagan is competitive for the NDP is most worrisome for the BC Liberals, but in this game, you only need one more vote than the next fellow, and you take the seat. In Okanagan, the BC Liberals - as the Socreds before them understood, had the ideological advantage over the NDP. They will need everything they've got (and more) to hold off Adrian Dix and the BC New Democrats given these numbers.
The BC Liberals are desperate for better polling numbers. But dissing pollsters won't help bring this about. We have already discovered what political peril BC Liberals are facing in the Lower Mainland of the province, having lost two recent by-elections in areas that don't ordinarily vote NDP. In the case of Chilliwack, its never happened until this year.
The BC Liberals basically require the NDP and the BC Conservatives to compete against one another in many areas in the North and Interior of the province if the have any hope of keeping an electoral presence outside the the populous Lower Mainland where their numbers look awful. In areas where the NDP is the main competition, they need push some soft NDP supporters to the BC Conservatives...and vica versa for areas where the the Cummins Conservatives are the main competition (push some soft tories to the NDP). The emergence of any sort of 'awkward vote split' is the only prayer for relief left for the BC Liberals--and even this formula would only be sufficient for a little face saving - certainly not a big win.
Based on these numbers thus far, the BC Liberals could only be relatively safe in two of the seven seats within Okanagan. They would be shut out from the Cariboo, lose two of three in Prince George, and would likely lose Peace River South to the BC Conservatives. Add this misery to the nightmare in the lower mainland , and the BC Liberals are already staring down a a major electoral disaster...and yet the NDP stronghold of Vancouver Island numbers await. Bad news likely followed by worse--

Question #1
Which political leader and party in British Columbia politics do you most support? (Includes: Lower Mainland numbers from June 11, 2012 ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) Omnibus Poll- A Tribute to Pollster Angus Reid and response outcomes from Northern Interior numbers (710) for a total of 1,821 {with Vancouver Island yet to come}.
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    44.08 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    24.85 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    21.91 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    9.12 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #2
Do you support the construction of the Enbridge pipeline transporting Alberta crude oil across the northern land mass of the Province of British Columbia and down the coastline of BC to China and United States? (Northern and Interior numbers only).
Yes    34.4 %
No    65.7 %
Undecided    17.4 %
This poll of the North and Interior of British Columbia includes data collected from areas including: Prince George, Peace River, Okanagan (Shuswap), Kamloops, and Kootenay regions. (Straw poll (raw) total percentages include factor of pro rata amounts for smaller communities and constituencies – as well as “best efforts” to adjust for gender in each region, constituency or community – Decided totals).
BC Liberals (30.4%) score as follows: Prince George (37%), Peace River (29.5%), Okanagan (27.5%), Kamloops (29.5%) and Kootenays (25.5%).
BC NDP (38.2%) score as follows: Prince George (39%), Peace River (24%), Okanagan (27%), Kamloops (41%), and Kootenays (40%).
BC Conservatives (22.3%) score as follows: Prince George (13%), Peace River (25.5%), Okanagan (22%), Kamloops (13%), and Kootenays (11.5%).
BC Greens (9.3%) score as follows: Prince George (8%), Peace River (7.5%), Okanagan (11.5%), Kamloops (7%), and Kootenays (12%).
According to these numbers the BC Liberals and BC NDP are equal in public support in the Prince George region and will vigorously compete for the seats there. The outcome will depend significantly on how well the BC Conservatives do – based on the (13%) support they currently have. One or two high profile candidates there will sink BC Liberal Ministers Bond and Bell. It is important to note that these numbers represent a best case scenario for BC Liberals as some areas in the north and interior with smaller populations where the BC Liberals do less well were not polled.
In the Peace River region the BC Liberals and BC Conservatives will compete for the Peace River North seat (depending again on the BC Conservative candidate), while all three party’s have a seat chance in Peace River South.
The BC Liberals and BC NDP are in direct competition in the more populous Okanagan region (Kelowna, Vernon, Penticton), however the BC Conservatives could win a seat there. The BC New Democrats should win it all in Kamloops - (though BC Liberal Kevin Krueger won’t go down without a fight) - and in the Kootenays.
(Decided) Numbers (question 2) supporting construction of the proposed Enbridge pipeline in the North and Interior are: Prince George (34%), Peace River (46%), Okanagan (33.5%), Kamloops (36%), and Kootenays (29%).
Methodology-In this second of three British Columbia 'Trilogy' Tribute to Angus Reid polls (the first our tribute to Angus Reid June 11, 2012) involving the most concentrated of populations in each region, the combination of support (adjusted for pro rata portion of smaller communities and constituencies AND for gender (best efforts) -for both polls the governing BC Liberals achieve a cumulative total of (24.85%), for BC Conservatives (21.52%), for BC NDP (44.08%), and BC Greens (8.65%).* This ROBBINS Sce Research poll was conducted using regular telephone lines from ROBBINS lists of voters from the 2009 general provincial election between June 15-22, 2012 and features a margin of error cumulatively based of 2.31% 19 times out of 20 @95% confidence. This ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll suggests that in the Lower Mainland and North and Interior of British Columbia based on both random and voter lists - the BC New Democrats have support totals as high as (46.39%) or as low as (41.65%). The BC Liberals possess support as high as (27.16%) and as low as (22.54%). BC Conservatives possess support as high as (24.21%) and as low as (19.59%). BC Greens possess support as high as (11.41%) and as low as (6.89%). These numbers do not include the third in the Trilogy of numbers from Vancouver Island including the capital city Victoria, BC.

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